Predictive models for occurrence of expansive intracranial hematomas and surgical evacuation outcomes in traumatic brain injury patients in Uganda: A prospective cohort study.

Background: Hematoma expansion is a common manifestation of acute intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) which is associated with poor outcomes and functional status. Objective: We determined the prevalence of expansive intracranial hematomas (EIH) and assessed the predictive model for EIH occurrence and surgical evacuation outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Uganda. Methods: We recruited adult patients with TBI with intracranial hematomas in a prospective cohort study. Data analysis using logistic regression to identify relevant risk factors, assess the interactions between variables, and developing a predictive model for EIH occurrence and surgical evacuation outcomes in TBI patients was performed. The predictive accuracies of these algorithms were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A p-values of < 0.05 at a 95% Confidence interval (CI) was considered significant. Results: A total of 324 study participants with intracranial hemorrhage were followed up for 6 months after surgery. About 59.3% (192/324) had expansive intracranial hemorrhage. The study participants with expansive intracranial hemorrhage had poor quality of life at both 3 and 6-months with p < 0.010 respectively. Among the 5 machine learning algorithms, the random forest performed the best in predicting EIH in both the training cohort (AUC = 0.833) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.734). The top five features in the random forest algorithm-based model were subdural hematoma, diffuse axonal injury, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, association between depressed fracture and subdural hematoma. Other models demonstrated good discrimination with AUC for intraoperative complication (0.675) and poor discrimination for mortality (0.366) after neurosurgical evacuation in TBI patients. Conclusion: Expansive intracranial hemorrhage is common among patients with traumatic brain injury in Uganda. Early identification of patients with subdural hematoma, diffuse axonal injury, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, association between depressed fracture and subdural hematoma, were crucial in predicting EIH and intraoperative complications.

Elevated serum lactate as a predictor of outcomes in patients following major abdominal surgery at a tertiary hospital in Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Major abdominal surgery is still a great contributor to postoperative morbidity and mortality in developing countries. Major abdominal surgery leads to hypoperfusion, which has an impact on postoperative morbidity and mortality. Lactate, a biomarker for hypoperfusion is under utilized in Uganda. The study aimed to investigate the association between elevated serum lactate and outcomes (in-hospital mortality, SSI and length of hospital stay) in patients following major abdominal surgery. METHODS: A prospective observational cohort study was done with 246 eligible patients recruited. Stratified sampling was carried out till desired sample size was achieved. Demographic and perioperative data were collected, serum lactate levels were measured at induction and immediately after surgery with serial measurements being done after 12, 24 h post operatively. Participants were followed up to assess outcomes. Data analysis was done using STATA version 14.0. RESULTS: A total of 130 patients (52.8%) had elevated serum lactate levels. Elevated serum lactate predicted in-hospital mortality and surgical site infection. The accuracy of elevated serum lactate to predict mortality with AUROC of 0.7898 was exhibited by the 24 h lactate values. Elevated serum lactate predicted surgical site infection accurately with AUROC 0.6432. Length of hospital is strongly associated with elevated serum lactate with p-value of 0.043. Patients with elevated serum lactate on average have a longer length of hospital stay at 5.34 ± 0.69. CONCLUSION: Elevated serum lactate was associated with in-hospital mortality, surgical site infection and longer length of hospital stay. Serum lactate levels done at 24 h were most predictive of mortality and surgical site infection.

Acid-base disorders as predictors of early outcomes in major trauma in a resource limited setting: An observational prospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Mortality from trauma remains a major challenge despite recent substantial improvements in acute trauma care. In trauma care patient resuscitation to correct hypotension from volume loss still majorly relies on use of physiological parameters such as blood pressure, pulse rate, respiratory rate, urine output and oxygen saturation. In resource limited settings these methods may not be sufficient to detect occult tissue hypoxia and the accompanying metabolic derangements. METHODS: A prospective observational study carried out at a level I urban Trauma centre; Accident and Emergency unit. Major trauma patients were consecutively recruited into the study. Venous blood samples were drawn for analysis of serum electrolytes, serum PH and anion gap. The venous blood gas findings were correlated with patients' clinical outcome at two weeks. Ethical approval was obtained. RESULTS: Ninety three major trauma patients were recruited, patients' age ranged from 12 months to 50 years. Forty nine patients (53%) were acidotic (PH less than 7.32), 39 patients (42%) had low bicarbonate (bicarbonate level less than 21 mmol), 54 patients (58%) had high corrected anion gap (anion gap corrected of 16 or more). Fourteen patients (15%) developed secondary organ failure and 32 (34%) patients died. CONCLUSION: Metabolic acidosis is common among major trauma patients, its severity may be related to delay in initiating care. Acid base derangements were predictors of mortality among major trauma patients in this resource limited setting.